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Indlæser... The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (udgave 2007)af Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Work InformationThe Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable af Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  
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Some interesting ideas, but the book lacked an overall organizational scheme. The attempts at humor didn't sit right with me either. I did finish it, but I had wanted to read it for a long time, so I'm attributing the fact that I finished it to that and force of will. (  ) beckyrenner | Aug 3, 2023 |  Very dense and philosophical, but the "thought experiments" were interesting. He calls his book "The Black Swan" because until Australia was explored, the western world considered it a fact that all swans were white, but just seeing one black swan made that "fact" false. He makes a strong case that using a bell curve in financial markets is so flawed it is dangerous. Unexpected occurrences (the bubbles, booms and busts)that he class black swans happen far more frequently than the statistical bell curve would predict. (  ) pollycallahan | Jul 1, 2023 | Extremely useful book (particularly if you're planning to re-use the black swan metaphor in learning contexts). It is also an enjoyable read, even if sometimes there are repetitions and the book (especially with the new part "on robustness and fragility") feels quite long. (  ) d.v. | May 16, 2023 | A nice, practical synthesis of the various criticisms of mainstream economic theory and the illusion/allure of predictability in general. Taleb also dishes out a lot of criticism of how economists are educated as well as economists in general--particularly those who appear to understand that not everything is a bell curve but compartmentalize that knowledge away from their economic work. As other reviewers have pointed out, much of this thinking has been around for years, in some cases more than a century. Where the author stands out is in putting it into practice, and, of course, having written this book explaining it all. However, while Taleb naturally disagrees with this evaluation, I and others found him to be somewhat arrogant. I also agree with those who feel that the information could have been presented more compactly--though in the author's defense, he stated that he wanted to take time to develop some narratives around these ideas in the hopes of a more powerful presentation. ( ) qaphsiel | Feb 20, 2023 | davdittrich | Feb 14, 2023 |
 Since the book was written prior to the current situation, many of the insights will seem prophetic. For instance, “regulators in the banking business are prone to a severe expert problem and they tend to condone reckless but (hidden) risk taking.” Some might think that the book specifically predicted the current market and economic crisis—wrong. The book is about the expectation that it could occur. Some of his presentation is incendiary in criticizing economics, finance, and many of its most honored practitioners. Because the book is viewed as being partly about Taleb himself and because of the style of the presentation, some react to the author's persona. If you are forewarned and forearmed, it is easier to focus on the ideas in the book. Because the arguments are controversial, it is understandable that he has chosen to have sharp elbows in getting to the front of the stage.  Taleb and his publishers clearly believe the success of Fooled by Randomness is going to come again. But that book had a persuasive sobriety. The same cannot be said for The Black Swan, which despite the great utility of its insights is badly structured and hurriedly written.  "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition, and contains such wise observations as: “We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control.” But the book exhibits shortcomings, the first being lack of structure. Belongs to SeriesIncerto (2) Indeholdt iIndeholder studiedelIndeholder elevguideHæderspriserDistinctionsNotable Lists
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random. No library descriptions found. |
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The Black Swan
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