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The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact…
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The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With… (udgave 2010)

af Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Auteur)

Serier: Incerto (2)

MedlemmerAnmeldelserPopularitetGennemsnitlig vurderingSamtaler / Omtaler
7,216170937 (3.73)1 / 102
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
Medlem:susanannanyhuis
Titel:The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility".
Forfattere:Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Auteur)
Info:Random House Trade Paperbacks (2010), Edition: 2, 480 pages
Samlinger:Dit bibliotek
Vurdering:
Nøgleord:Ingen

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The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable af Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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» Se også 102 omtaler

Engelsk (152)  Hollandsk (5)  Italiensk (4)  Spansk (3)  Tysk (2)  Fransk (2)  Tjekkisk (1)  Svensk (1)  Alle sprog (170)
Viser 1-5 af 170 (næste | vis alle)
El cisne negro: El impacto de lo altamente improbable es un libro de 2007 del autor y ex operador de opciones Nassim Nicholas Taleb. El libro se centra en el impacto extremo de eventos atípicos raros e impredecibles, y en la tendencia humana a encontrar explicaciones simplistas para estos eventos, retrospectivamente.
  varbes | May 5, 2021 |
I cannot recall another book where the author praises himself more while continually dismissing the work of others. This running comparison of the author's brilliance with the incompetence of others would be easier to swallow if he had provided references to his and others' work. (Names of the author's friends and his life experiences are not adequate references.)
The primary example upon which he based the book (the turkey story) is a beautiful example of statistics with a sample size of one! With no more data than one turkey's growth and death records a year for each of the past few years (or a few turkeys from last year), elementary statistics would be adequate to predict the turkey's Black Swan event to the day. ( )
1 stem Brown | Apr 24, 2021 |
I got stuck on page 128 when reading this back in 2013.
I am not an expert in probability.
My impression was that the author used a great number of anecdotes to get his point across -- somewhat contradictory. So I had mixed feelings about his claim and am happy to defer to other people's opinion. ( )
  BesterikEz0815 | Mar 29, 2021 |
Angry and rude, but there are gems inside and you need to skip/ignore many pages of anecdotes ( )
  AngelBar | Feb 18, 2021 |
there are much better books than this available covering the same topics.

extremely long winded self important waffle.

some interesting observations which could be condensed to a nice short essay/article without losing anything. ( )
  mjhunt | Jan 22, 2021 |
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Since the book was written prior to the current situation, many of the insights will seem prophetic. For instance, “regulators in the banking business are prone to a severe expert problem and they tend to condone reckless but (hidden) risk taking.” Some might think that the book specifically predicted the current market and economic crisis—wrong. The book is about the expectation that it could occur.
tilføjet af dtw42 | RedigerBusiness Economics, Gerald L Musgrave (pay site) (Aug 11, 2011)
 
Some of his presentation is incendiary in criticizing economics, finance, and many of its most honored practitioners. Because the book is viewed as being partly about Taleb himself and because of the style of the presentation, some react to the author's persona. If you are forewarned and forearmed, it is easier to focus on the ideas in the book. Because the arguments are controversial, it is understandable that he has chosen to have sharp elbows in getting to the front of the stage.
tilføjet af Jozefus | RedigerJSTOR / Business Economics, Gerald L. Musgrave (pay site) (Apr 1, 2009)
 
Taleb and his publishers clearly believe the success of Fooled by Randomness is going to come again. But that book had a persuasive sobriety. The same cannot be said for The Black Swan, which despite the great utility of its insights is badly structured and hurriedly written.
tilføjet af Jozefus | RedigerThe Guardian, Giles Foden (May 12, 2007)
 
"The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition, and contains such wise observations as: “We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control.” But the book exhibits shortcomings, the first being lack of structure.
 

» Tilføj andre forfattere (14 mulige)

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Nassim Nicholas Talebprimær forfatteralle udgaverberegnet
Pietiläinen, KimmoOversættermedforfatternogle udgaverbekræftet
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Before the discovery of Australia, people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence.
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Die beste Strategie besteht also darin, möglichst viel auszuprobieren und möglichst viele Chancen, aus den sich Schwarze Schwäne ergeben könnten, zu ergreifen.
Die narrative Verzerrung ist Ausdruck unserer eingeschränkten Fähigkeit, Reihen von Fakten zu betrachten, ohne eine Erklärung in sie hineinzuweben oder, was dasselbe bedeutet, gewaltsam eine logische Verknüpfung, einen Beziehungspfeil zwischen ihnen herzustellen. Erklärungen binden Fakten zusammen. Sie sorgen dafür, dass wir uns viel leichter an sie erinnern können, dass sie mehr Sinn ergeben. Diese Neigung kann uns aber in die Irre führen, wenn sie unseren Eindruck, dass wir verstehen, verstärkt.
Wir sind soziale Tiere; die Hölle sind andere Menschen.
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Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.

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