HjemGrupperSnakMereZeitgeist
På dette site bruger vi cookies til at levere vores ydelser, forbedre performance, til analyseformål, og (hvis brugeren ikke er logget ind) til reklamer. Ved at bruge LibraryThing anerkender du at have læst og forstået vores vilkår og betingelser inklusive vores politik for håndtering af brugeroplysninger. Din brug af dette site og dets ydelser er underlagt disse vilkår og betingelser.
Hide this

Resultater fra Google Bøger

Klik på en miniature for at gå til Google Books

Indlæser...

The Black Swan : The Impact of the Highly Improbable

af Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Andre forfattere: Se andre forfattere sektionen.

Serier: Incerto (2)

MedlemmerAnmeldelserPopularitetGennemsnitlig vurderingSamtaler / Omtaler
7,096165932 (3.74)1 / 101
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
Indlæser...

Bliv medlem af LibraryThing for at finde ud af, om du vil kunne lide denne bog.

Engelsk (148)  Hollandsk (5)  Italiensk (4)  Spansk (2)  Fransk (2)  Tysk (2)  Tjekkisk (1)  Svensk (1)  Alle sprog (165)
Viser 1-5 af 165 (næste | vis alle)
FIL 939 ( )
  MRMP | Jan 9, 2021 |
FIL 939 ( )
  MRMP | Jan 9, 2021 |
Gostei muito do livro, mesmo com a sensação de ter entendido uns 70% dele. Provavelmente precisarei reler algumas vezes pra entender por completo, mas a mensagem principal, de não se guiar pelos modelos e teorias e buscar sempre o ceticismo é muito valiosa. ( )
  ladyars | Jan 4, 2021 |
I think this book is great because Taleb's ideas introduce me to a set of concepts I have never encountered before. This originality, more than anything else, probably makes his books worth reading.

That said, I think that the text rambles quite a bit and could have been more concise. I would also have appreciated some footnotes/appendices on supporting technical details -- I guess I should look at his upcoming book "Silent Risk" for those aspects. ( )
  thoughtweaver | Dec 29, 2020 |
This is a complicated book. I don't often need three months to complete 450 pages but this one book could not be digested in large chunks. It has been sitting at the bed waiting for me to gather enough energy to consume a bit more.

This is really a continuation of Taleb's earlier work, focusing on the economics outside the models. The main theme is that everyone in economy is ignoring the extreme outliers, pretending they will not happen and if they happen, models are slightly adjusted to just fit the new data point.

The thesis is that extreme outliers matter a lot, and many will be killed (economically or literally) by them. Timely enough, in the first edition from 2007 he mentioned the debt crisis (which crashed the American markets in 2008) as one such thing, though he barely cared about it since it was so obvious, and obvious things are not black swans for him. A black swan is something you personally think can/will never happen.

The book is very verbose and it's easy to be annoyed by the author's arrogance but the message is valuable so there is a reason to go ahead. The author also accuses most everyone else of arrogance which is a bit entertaining. I am sure he is making as many enemies as friends.

I read the second edition which contains an extra 50-100 pages of commentary on the first edition. Pointing out common misunderstandings, events that followed and similar. That part is much easier to read and explains parts that could easily have been misunderstood in the earlier part.

As in his Fooled Randomness book, Taleb doesn't mark his statements with many sources, and instead have an extensive literature list at the end. He does namedrop a lot though, but unless you are more versed in philosophy than I am, it's hard to judge his interpretations of ancient, and less ancient, philosophers.

I would not recommend this book on just anyone, but it will certainly affect what I say and do. ( )
  bratell | Dec 25, 2020 |
Viser 1-5 af 165 (næste | vis alle)
Since the book was written prior to the current situation, many of the insights will seem prophetic. For instance, “regulators in the banking business are prone to a severe expert problem and they tend to condone reckless but (hidden) risk taking.” Some might think that the book specifically predicted the current market and economic crisis—wrong. The book is about the expectation that it could occur.
tilføjet af dtw42 | RedigerBusiness Economics, Gerald L Musgrave (pay site) (Aug 11, 2011)
 
Some of his presentation is incendiary in criticizing economics, finance, and many of its most honored practitioners. Because the book is viewed as being partly about Taleb himself and because of the style of the presentation, some react to the author's persona. If you are forewarned and forearmed, it is easier to focus on the ideas in the book. Because the arguments are controversial, it is understandable that he has chosen to have sharp elbows in getting to the front of the stage.
tilføjet af Jozefus | RedigerJSTOR / Business Economics, Gerald L. Musgrave (pay site) (Apr 1, 2009)
 
Taleb and his publishers clearly believe the success of Fooled by Randomness is going to come again. But that book had a persuasive sobriety. The same cannot be said for The Black Swan, which despite the great utility of its insights is badly structured and hurriedly written.
tilføjet af Jozefus | RedigerThe Guardian, Giles Foden (May 12, 2007)
 
"The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition, and contains such wise observations as: “We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control.” But the book exhibits shortcomings, the first being lack of structure.
 

» Tilføj andre forfattere (14 mulige)

Forfatter navnRolleHvilken slags forfatterVærk?Status
Nassim Nicholas Talebprimær forfatteralle udgaverberegnet
Pietiläinen, KimmoOversættermedforfatternogle udgaverbekræftet
Du bliver nødt til at logge ind for at redigere data i Almen Viden.
For mere hjælp se Almen Viden hjælpesiden.
Kanonisk titel
Oplysninger fra den engelske Almen Viden Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
Originaltitel
Alternative titler
Oprindelig udgivelsesdato
Personer/Figurer
Oplysninger fra den engelske Almen Viden Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
Vigtige steder
Oplysninger fra den engelske Almen Viden Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
Vigtige begivenheder
Beslægtede film
Priser og hædersbevisninger
Oplysninger fra den engelske Almen Viden Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
Indskrift
Tilegnelse
Oplysninger fra den engelske Almen Viden Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
To Benoît Mandelbrot, a Greek among Romans
Første ord
Oplysninger fra den engelske Almen Viden Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
Before the discovery of Australia, people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence.
Citater
Information fra den tyske Almen Viden. Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
Die beste Strategie besteht also darin, möglichst viel auszuprobieren und möglichst viele Chancen, aus den sich Schwarze Schwäne ergeben könnten, zu ergreifen.
Die narrative Verzerrung ist Ausdruck unserer eingeschränkten Fähigkeit, Reihen von Fakten zu betrachten, ohne eine Erklärung in sie hineinzuweben oder, was dasselbe bedeutet, gewaltsam eine logische Verknüpfung, einen Beziehungspfeil zwischen ihnen herzustellen. Erklärungen binden Fakten zusammen. Sie sorgen dafür, dass wir uns viel leichter an sie erinnern können, dass sie mehr Sinn ergeben. Diese Neigung kann uns aber in die Irre führen, wenn sie unseren Eindruck, dass wir verstehen, verstärkt.
Wir sind soziale Tiere; die Hölle sind andere Menschen.
Sidste ord
Information fra den tyske Almen Viden. Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
(Klik for at vise Advarsel: Kan indeholde afsløringer.)
Oplysning om flertydighed
Forlagets redaktører
Bagsidecitater
Oplysninger fra den engelske Almen Viden Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
Originalsprog
Oplysninger fra den engelske Almen Viden Redigér teksten, så den bliver dansk.
Canonical DDC/MDS
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.

No library descriptions found.

Beskrivelse af bogen
Haiku-resume

Quick Links

Populære omslag

Vurdering

Gennemsnit: (3.74)
0.5 3
1 48
1.5 8
2 96
2.5 25
3 305
3.5 60
4 455
4.5 43
5 349

Penguin Australia

Een udgave af denne bog er udgivet af Penguin Australia.

» Information om udgiveren

Recorded Books

Een udgave af denne bog er udgivet af Recorded Books.

» Information om udgiveren

Er det dig?

Bliv LibraryThing-forfatter.

 

Om | Kontakt | LibraryThing.com | Brugerbetingelser/Håndtering af brugeroplysninger | Hjælp/FAQs | Blog | Butik | APIs | TinyCat | Efterladte biblioteker | Tidlige Anmeldere | Almen Viden | 154,446,739 bøger! | Topbjælke: Altid synlig