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Indlæser... Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions (2013)af Gerd Gigerenzer
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Bliv medlem af LibraryThing for at finde ud af, om du vil kunne lide denne bog. Der er ingen diskussionstråde på Snak om denne bog. Accessible read regarding how we could better communicate about risks to improve the quality of decision making. Gigerenzer is also very clearly not an advocate for behavioural economics approach to improving the outcomes of decision making. ( ) Rules of thumb work. This book combines logic and psychology to explain why they work best when things are most uncertain. Instinct has saved us from extinction so far, and number-crunching proves much better in analyzing the past than predicting the future. Professor Gigerenzer credits Einstein with the idea of "less is more," although the scientist never said it so simply. The book's rules are pretty simple: Worry about things that'll surely kill you, like bad diets and sedentary ways. Invest in ways you understand. Find what you're looking for, and look no more. Gigerenzer doesn't let you off the hook for making things too simple. Name recognition can be a handy gauge of quality, but brand names can coast on their reputation -- people choose second-best to protect themselves if something goes wrong. The author wants to make sure you know the risks, and not to assume your doctor or banker knows better. Less is more in this book: No glossary's needed, although Gigerenzer perversely provides one to hold all the heavy statistical theory. He goes into some depth about expecting false positives in test results and marginal improvements from medical procedures or prescription drugs. I question at least one of his rules of thumb: The more the media report on a health risk, the smaller the danger to you. It's not like smoking hasn't gotten any press. But I'll take his point: If you're concerned now about measles, you should at least have Googled the CDC by now. ingen anmeldelser | tilføj en anmeldelse
An eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how. Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty. No library descriptions found. |
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