The Oracle Speaks

A message from the DlphcOracl regarding Folio Society books and other private press books as well:

The prices for the most desirable of the FS books and the iconic high-end private press books (1890 to present day) have skyrocketed and this phenomenon began about two years ago. Fine and private press books are amongst the new desirable collectibles, perhaps aided and enabled by the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year. Case in point:

At today's auction at Dominic Winter Auctioneers, the hammer price for the three-volume facsimile set of Edmund Spenser's Faerie Queene with Walter Crane illustrations, in the cream full morocco and gilt bindings with thick wooden slipcase (Lot 570), fetched a hammer price of 1,100 GBP. With the 23% Buyer's Premium this translates to 1,353 GBP = $1,900. US dollars (see link).

https://www.dominicwinter.co.uk/Auction/Lot/lot-570---folio-society-spensers-fae...

The auction houses have not quite caught on to this phenomenon and their pre-auction estimates are consistently too low, so much so that the hammer price often vastly exceeds the top of their pre-auction estimate range. I see too much verbiage being wasted on the FSD thread from collectors holding out from purchasing books they want, waiting for unreasonable prices at mythical sales that simply are not going to happen - at least, not for the top end FS books.

My point: Don't be "Too Cute by Half". If there is an FS book you really want, BUY IT!!. When it goes OOP it will cost substantially more when it hits the secondary market. The 10-20 GBP you had hoped to save at a future sale will now cost you 2-3 x more than the original FS price, often more.

Trust the DlphcOracl on this one.

I think this is a bubble. Like all bubbles it will burst. We saw this with Tolkien books which reached absurd levels after the films were released and then came back down to Earth with a bump. They are now rising again due to interest in the forthcoming Amazon series and then, once again, will come back down to Earth.

>2 Quicksilver66:

You are incorrect.

This phenomenon began two years ago and it has slowly but steadily increased, involving fine and rare private press books at all levels - from Folio Society books to Ashendene Press and Kelmscott Press books. Remember: I am not talking about run-of-the-mill FS or Limited Editions Club (LEC) books. Rather, I am talking about the most sought after titles and the best of the best, e.g., the FS Beowulf, the John Lord / James Joyce books, the Malay Archipelago, the Terry Pratchett novels, Lolita. If you are waiting for a bubble to burst, you will be waiting quite a long time.

Even the price of gold goes up and down. Much as I like FS books, we are not talking about exquisite rarities such as a first edition signed Ulysses or the subscribers edition of Seven Pillars of Wisdom. I have the Beowulf book which I love but would not put on a par with the likes of the Kelmscott Press, Golden Cockerel Press or the Ashendene Press. I’m not saying they won’t have a value but there will be a limit to it - and it won’t always be up. I could be wrong but that’s my best guess.

I still don’t see much interest in FS fine and limited editions from the likes of Peter Harrington or Bernard Quaritch in London. I don’t think they see them as a good long term bet.

I don't think this is a bubble. I think prices on collectibles are going up all across the board. Video games to books etc are increasing. I do think dlphcoracl is correct in that COVID likely increased prices and demand. Think about it - what do you do when you're at home? Most people will

1)Watch movies
2)Listen to music
3)Read a book
4)Play video games

The above applies to millions if not billions of people, and so collectibles like video games and books are more in demand. Book collecting has always been "in demand" and I think slowly more and more books are being purchased, so I wouldn't say this started two years ago but has just slowly been increasing. I think a few decades from now people will wish they had purchased this or that book for prices some of us look at now and go "that's a bit expensive".

>1 dlphcoracl:

Pretty obvious bubble. The Faerie Queene took like 7 years to sell out...I've owned it twice and sold it twice. I have no problem with archaic English but I just couldn't get through it. Would be weird if it suddenly become so much more desirable than other FS books. I've heard more than one person say it's unreadable and at that price you could just wait and get the original 19th century collected edition (same gilt illustration as the FS facsimile).

Auction prices can also get pretty weird. I've seen many books sell at auction for more than they were listed for on Abebooks....bidding frenzy or some Large purchaser looking to buy in bulk and possibly save overall, who knows...

>7 U_238: The FS simply does not produce the kinds of books today that it used to in the past
Lord, if I had $1 every single time I've heard that...
No offense of course, you and everyone else are entitled to your opinions, BUT I have heard that for I don't know how many years. Always the same thing "it was so better in the past... they don't make books like they used to... won't be worth anything... had to hike to school during the blizzard of '77...yadda yadda"
For the record, as someone that has been collecting books including FS books long before they released their Faerie Queene facsimile, I think the quality of their books is for the most part just as good as it ever was. The exception would be those books that have been produced in China - I've not had good luck with those, BUT their other limited editions such as the PKD LE is just as wonderful as anything they've released previously - my opinion :)

>8 astropi:
I agree, and compared to some of their very ordinary editions in the 1970s, the standard editions today are superb.
I have been a member/customer of the FS since 1992.
The style of LE has certainly changed, moving from only classics to a mixture of modern and more traditional titles, while being far more imaginative in their presentation.

I also agree re: the quality and variety of their publications. Very impressive.

As has been noted before, their business model has clearly changed across a few areas. Obviously, no more membership; but also, fewer discounts (and at a lesser scale), no payments in installments (correct me if I'm wrong) - I used this a lot in the late 90s and early 2000s when I was 'poorer', which probably made the purchases seem more affordable (classic consumer psychology, I know!).

They also seem better overall at managing their print runs. Not over-committing and maximising the takings on their popular ones. I think another part of their strategy is to keep the second hand market healthy - for example, by being a little bit 'random' on which editions they will reprint. I mean, Dune must be approaching most copies sold ever? (Anyone have any stats on that - probably a guarded secret at Folio HQ) However, titles like One Hundred Years of Solitude remain out of print - surely this sold out pretty quickly?

One word: frenzy.

I too have seen the fear-of-missing-out-frenzied reactions and inflated prices that folio books are going for. Not to mention the Facebook group where sellers are doing exceedingly well playing the buyers in handing over their hard earned cash by posting pictures of books and chatter. It works. All psychological and I sometimes see a volume and go searching for it. The same happens, to a lesser extent, here.

But as >2 Quicksilver66: mentioned above, I’ll wait it out. No reason to get all hyped up. I was following the discussion of the Faerie Queen LE on Facebook and at £1300+ it’s just worth seeking out the 19th century original, if you’re ready to pay that sort of money. I’ve never overpaid more than a hundred or two of the original price (whilst others severely less than original price) for any folio book since I began collecting in 2009 and have always found what I’ve been looking for even with limited editions. It took me ten years to find the 2 vol. Samual Johnson’s Dictionary LE for £800; and Diary of Samuel Pepys for £400 and there was a time when I used to collect all folio’s LE but have since moved on to becoming more selective with my collection and having great books that I’m going to read so Faerie Queen’s out.

I’ve also decided to put an end to buying older books because of foxing, mould and musty smells that I’ve unfortunately been able to receive by scrupulous sellers. Sometimes it just too difficult to return books if you’re buying from abroad. I burnt my fingers on a Riccardi Press 1921 Thomas Hardy’s Selected Poems that’s now in a plastic bag waiting to be dealt with.

Patience.

I am buying more books new (at full price) than I have previously, so I don't end up with another "Lolita" or "Small Gods" tormenting me with the high secondary market prices.

Whilst I'm not going to spend the secondary market prices to pick up the ones I missed out on, I am definitely more willing to pay full price for any new ones I don't want to miss out on. More money going to the Folio Society at least!

>13 EdmundRodriguez:

Agree with this - it definitely makes one feel better about buying at full price when the secondary market is so much stronger. The apparently toned down sales also help with the fear of overpaying.

By way of illustration, I still remember not buying the Foundation trilogy when it was on sale because I didn't think the discount was high enough, and that I should wait for the next sale.

It's hard to imagine doing something quite that stupid now, though a close runner up was not buying Mort before it sold out.

>1 dlphcoracl: I was watching the Dominic Winter auction live (intending to bid on another lot that also went for multiples of its asking price). The question now on my mind is whether the buyers are collectors, or dealers who have cottoned on to the chance to turn a profit. During the live auction, the auctioneer seemed to be on first-name terms with several of his bidders, suggesting possible dealers doing a lot of the buying.

>1 dlphcoracl: could be right....or he could be wrong. 50-50. I'm not putting any of my investment money into it though. I'm also still buying plenty of excellent older Folios at paperback prices, which are making for very good reading, and are thus an excellent investment (I'm particularly enjoying 18th/19th century memoir type volumes, of which there are plenty from the earlier FS years)! The bubble/price increases is/are certainly not general, as >1 dlphcoracl: clearly states.

Quite a few of the recent volumes look better than any of the earlier publications - the recent Isabella Bird is IMO quite outstanding for instance - it's just that, on the whole, I prefer the content and style of the older books - not least sizes and illustrators (especially in fiction). I'm obviously getting to be an old fogey, and am certainly off trend!

>15 ubiquitousuk:

Private collectors vs. professional booksellers? The answer is: both.

However, the very finest and most desirable books , i.e., the lots that fetched jaw-dropping prices, undoubtedly were purchased by private collectors and NOT booksellers. How can I be this certain? Because the standard modus operandi for fine & rare booksellers is to price books acquired from auctions for AT LEAST 100% above their purchase price (including Buyer's Premium) as their customary and usual profit margin. If they cannot realize this 100% profit margin (or greater) the dealers do not want these books taking shelf space.

I can only comment on the lots in the latter 1/3 of the Dominic Winters Auction (DWA) held yesterday (June 17th), i.e., the modern private press books from Lot 566 - 678 since I am not knowledgeable with regard to collection 1st editions or antiquity. Most of these books were in excellent condition and appear to have come from one private collection. Look specifically at lots 590, 592, 635, 640, 641, 645, 648, 650, 656, and 666. Take these hammer prices, add in an additional 20% to 23% Buyer's Premium, and then DOUBLE that price. Do you think booksellers could ever hope to offer these books for sale at those prices?? For example:

Lot 590 - A Specimen Book of Pattern Papers, Curwen Press, 1928.

The hammer price for this lot was 3,800 GBP and with the 23% Buyer's Premium for live bidding on the Dominic Winter platform this amounts to 4,674 GBP = $6,543 US dollars. Do you believe a London bookseller could offer this book for sale at about 9,300 GBP and hope to sell it? I think not. The delicious irony in all of this is that the steep price increase in the finest and most iconic private press books now being realized at auction has priced out the booksellers themselves!! They are now restricted to acquiring the 2nd and 3rd tier private press books at these auctions and astute and aggressive private collectors can almost always outbid the booksellers for reasons discussed above.

FWIW, this certainly has changed my approach to bidding at auctions and I am now far more selective with regard to what I bid on. When I do select a lot to bid on for a book I strongly wish to acquire, I am now prepared to bid well above the the top of the pre-auction estimate range, within some semblance of reason.

An anecdotal story that may be of interest in further illustrating my original point.......

If you are familiar with the Kelmscott Press bibliography of 56 books, there is a subset which William Morris affectionately referred to as his "little books". These are nine small or slim books varying in size from 18mo (100 x 165 mm) up to 8vo or octavo (153 x 228 mm) with Plain Jane holland bindings rather than the customary limp vellum bindings and silk ribbon ties reserved for the full octavo and quarto Kelmscott editions. Morris created and priced these books to make his "beautiful" books available to a wider audience of less wealthy collectors. As recently as six years ago these books could be purchased at auction (including BP) for 500 - 800 GBP ($700 to $1,200 US dollars) with little difficulty. Today, as can be seen from yesterday's DW auction, they consistently sell for between 1,200 to 2,200 GBP.

One final point for the FSD faithful - this OT discussion is not as irrelevant to your collecting interests as you may think. The FS Limited Editions have begun to appear at the high-end auctions with increasing frequency, something that was unthinkable for auction houses such as Forum Auctions and Bonhams a year ago, and the same points are valid for these FS books as well.

I certainly think we’ve been living through a golden age for Folio LE’s the past 15 years. The quality generally has been excellent. If serious auction houses are taking an interest in FS books then that’s a good sign because higher end dealers traditionally looked down their noses at FS books. But that was before FS got into the LE game. But in all honesty I can’t see prices rising much further. Time, as always, will tell.

>18 Quicksilver66:

One aspect of the FS Limited Editions somewhat overlooked is just how much variation and aesthetic range there is amongst these LE books, varying from relatively straightforward books with full leather bindings (Aeneid, Decameron, War and Peace, Ulysses, etc.) to the elaborate giant folio sized books. For myself, the subset I find especially attractive are the large quarto books measuring 13 x 9 7/8 inches (33 x 24.5 cm) with quarter vellum bindings and gilt lettering, vellum corner tips, and TEG which come in attractive clamshell boxes, e.g., TWITW, the Rubaiyat, Gulliver's Travels, Alice in Wonderland, the Rime of the Ancient Mariner, etc.

>16 Willoyd: I agree that many (though not all) older standard editions are quite nice, certainly approaching or surpassing the higher end standard editions being released now. They are often cheaper only because they are not on trend (or have taken some wear over the years—though I haven’t had trouble finding affordable copies in fine condition). For example: Stanhope’s letters, The Castle of Otranto, The Monk, the 1979 Divine Comedy, etc.

These older standard editions often feature quality letterpress printing, textured laid paper, hand marbled paper over the boards, and so forth. In some ways, these are higher production standards compared to many current limited editions.

As always, supply and demand rules.

>9 wcarter: by my tastes there is a nice spread of quality in both older and newer releases.

The quality of reproductions for photographs, or art in color such as oil paintings, has certainly improved. My copy of The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (printed by C&C on the much maligned Yu Long Pure paper) is gorgeous.

>20 abysswalker:
I can't disagree with you about those older editions - I was really just trying to counter the comment made earlier about FS not making books like they used to. In some respects that's true (letterpress!), but there are others where they equal or surpass in certain aspects. And I say that as someone who, on the whole, prefers their older material (for the reasons given). Interesting what you say about The Structure of Scientific Revolutions - that's one of the few currently in print in which I'm really interested. Thank you!

>19 dlphcoracl: Totally agree. The Rime of the Ancient Mariner is my favourite LE. I love that book and FS did a magnificent job. That was back in the day of Joe Whitlock Blundell who did such a magnificent job with the LE program.

I think the upshot of The Oracle's post holds true - for those high-end or highly desirable FS editions that you really want, buy now and do not wait for a sale.

I've never risked not buying books I was really interested in until a potential sale. But I've often bought titles in the sales I wouldn't have bought otherwise, but I was tempted by at reduced price. It was sometimes frustrating to see that I paid more than I had to, so to say, but then you don't miss out on titles you really want with this method.

>24 SF-72:

Once you miss out on a desirable title that goes OOP, you will pay a steep premium to subsequently acquire it. The gist of my long-winded post above is that for these select titles, e.g., Mort, the LE TWITW, The Seamus Heaney Beowulf, Finnegan's Wake. the John Lord illustrated Ulysses, the Lang Fairy books, etc., the prices are not coming down very quickly, if at all, and they are certainly not going to revisit the original FS publication prices.

WOW... look at this :O

>26 astropi:

And a completed items search currently shows that as the second lowest price among the six copies it brings up: the others aren't very much higher, except for a buy-it-now copy at 550GBP.

I'll not be changing my buying habits, I've no interest in selling books and I struggle to recall a single pang of regret at a Folio title I've missed out on: which I suppose means that I've always tended to buy as soon as the price is low enough to feel worth paying. For several of the books now in hot demand that's taken a sale or special offer.

>25 dlphcoracl:

I completely agree. This happened to me with a title I wasn't interested in when it was originally available, including in a sale, and only later discovered the author as one of potential interest, combined with an interesting illustrator. It was much more expensive than the original price, and as it turned out I didn't enjoy it at all. Fortunately, I was able to sell it without making a loss. But I (and many of us here) were simply lucky that we discovered FS before things changed and it became an expensive business to find certain older titles on the secondary market, and the number of those is increasing. A friend of mine only discovered FS through me late last year, and some titles she'd like to have - the Prattchets in particular - are something she won't buy at these prices. Good for her that she's got pretty good control over her book-buying urges. That doesn't go for everyone and not everyone who buys at these prices can actually afford it judging by what I read in a Suntup thread. I'd certainly be frustrated if I didn't already have the more problematic titles I'm interested in (bought at full price, and worth it to me). Others I'm looking for these days from before I became a member in 2012 are still reasonably priced.

I agree so good that I bought most of the books in bulk and the generous sales by Folio ten years ago and have been adding only a handful yearly.