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Peter L. Bernstein (1919–2009)

Forfatter af Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

18+ Værker 4,137 Medlemmer 42 Anmeldelser 5 Favorited

Om forfatteren

Peter L. Bernstein graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College with a degree in economics. After serving as a member of the research staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Office of Strategic Services in Washington, Bernstein joined the the Air Force, attaining the rank of vis mere captain serving in World War II, and assigned to the Office of Strategic Services. After the war, Bernstein taught economics for many years as an adjunct professor on the Graduate Faculty of the New School for Social Research in New York. In 1951, after teaching economics at Williams College and spending five years in commercial banking, Bernstein became Chief Executive of a nationally known investment counsel firm He retired in 1973 to launch Peter L. Bernstein, Inc. Bernstein was the first Editor of The Journal of Portfolio Management in 1974,and is now Consulting Editor of the Journal. He served on the Visiting Committee to the Economics Department at Harvard University, as a Trustee and member of the Finance Committee of the College Retirement Equities Fund, and as a Trustee of the Investment Management Workshop sponsored by the Association for Investment Management & Research. Bernstein is the author of nine books in economics and finance and he has also written articles in professional journals such as The Harvard Business Review and the Financial Analysts Journal, and in the press, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Worth Magazine, and Bloomberg publications. He has contributed to collections of articles published by Perseus and FT Mastering. He is also a lecturer on risk management, asset allocation, portfolio strategy, and market history. Bernstein has received three major awards from the Association for Investment Management & Research, which include; The Award for Professional Excellence, The Graham & Dodd Award, given annually for the outstanding article in the Financial Analysts Journal for the previous year, and The James R. Vertin Award, recognizing individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals. (Bowker Author Biography) vis mindre

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The Great Contraction, 1929-1933 (1965) — Introduktion, nogle udgaver100 eksemplarer

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Probability has always been my mental blindspot, but this is a pretty good introduction to risk management for a lay person.
AstonishingChristina | 22 andre anmeldelser | Feb 22, 2023 |
I disagree with so much of this book. Not because I think Bernstein's statements are wrong, but because their connection to risk, risk assessment, and risk management is so tenuous. Further, there is never any discussion of consequence. It is not enough to assess the likelihood of an event - the potential consequence is more important.
FKarr | 22 andre anmeldelser | Dec 20, 2022 |
Weirdly starts like a children's book, for maybe 50 pages, then comes right. I've seen this before but I don't know why they do it.

After the dodgy start, "The Power of Gold" then rushes over the rest of its content, never really developing any proper context or deep understanding: outcomes only ever have one single cause in this book. Sigh.

As others have noted: this is a badly written book . . . about an interesting subject.
GirlMeetsTractor | 5 andre anmeldelser | Mar 22, 2020 |
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk discusses the history of Risk Management. The book goes through the early years of Probability and comes full circle to the present day. It talks about the development of Statistical Sampling and other various techniques used to quantify events.

The book is really interesting in how it discusses its subject. Peter L Bernstein has done a great deal of work in researching the history of Probability and the history of Statistics. It also goes into how people understood annuities and other methods of insurance.

Bernstein has done a great deal of thought on how the Ancient Greeks didn’t develop this sort of idea as well. They knew of many things but never made that leap to think of Risk Assessment or Probabilities. With the Ancient Greeks, the main problem was not only their number system, but it was also their belief in a capricious pantheon of deities. The author argues that if you don’t believe yourself to be a free agent with some control over your own fate, you wouldn’t go and try to change your own position in society. Finally, the Ancient Greeks didn’t really have a mindset of making practical applications for things. They were more purists than anything with that. The theoretical was more important than the practical for them.

So this paradigm continued throughout the so-called Dark Ages. As I said, a great deal of the shift in thinking occurred due to the spread of Hindu-Arabic Numerals and other Arabic ideas. It covers the development of the Double-Entry Bookkeeping System, and how people didn’t trust the Hindu-Arabic Numerals at first. Basically, the argument was that it was too easy to commit fraud. Once Movable Type became more available the numerals were accepted easily. This was also prompted by the rise of Banking and other businesses that made dozens of transactions per day.

By following the development of Probability Theory, we look at the lives of many mathematical luminaries of the Seventeenth Century and beyond. We certainly know the lives of some of these men and women, but most of them started popping up in the Seventeenth Century as I mentioned. All of them were known to Marin Mersenne, the French Priest that made some advancements in Acoustics and ran correspondence with people all over Europe. The other thing of note was the rise of Lloyd’s, the famed Insurance Company that I never really knew much about. With Merchant Shipping came the rise of Underwriters and other different services.

Once we get into the Eighteenth Century we meet up with some of the Bernoulli Family and the Prince of Mathematicians Carl Friedrich Gauss. The book states that Daniel Bernoulli was the first to ascribe a value to something that could not be counted. Bernoulli argued that motivations count toward the end result as well. To illustrate this, Bernoulli presents the Petersburg Paradox. The Paradox goes like this; Peter and Paul play a coin flip game. If tails come up the winnings you get are doubled, but if heads come up, you get the amount that you won. What would you pay to enter such a game? Bernoulli tells us that although the game can enable you to earn an infinite amount of money, a reasonable person would only pay about 20 Ducats. We can’t have risk without uncertainty, and in that vein, we meet Thomas Bayes and the Bayes Theorem. It discusses the ideas behind that and how it benefited the field. Then we meet with Gauss. He developed a lot of different things, among them is the Normal Distribution or Bell Curve.

Finally, once we reach the modern era it talks about the theories and ideas of Keynes, von Neumann, Knight, and Morgenstern. It talks about when the United States Government auctioned off its Wireless Zone rights and how different companies had to use Game Theory to figure out what to do, and the best way to outbid the other companies.

All in all, this book was pretty good. It was very interesting and enjoyable. I did not realize that it was over twenty years old as of this review on May 23, 2019. That isn’t really all that important though.
… (mere)
Floyd3345 | 22 andre anmeldelser | Jun 15, 2019 |



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